02 - 07 - 2026

India’s telecom operators to report steady Q1 earnings

India’s telecom operators are expected to report steady earnings in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY27), driven by stable subscriber growth and premiumisation, according to sector previews released by brokerages.

For Q1FY27, Bharti Airtel is expected to lead with a strong 15.4% year-on-year (YoY) revenue increase and a significant 38.8% YoY jump in net profit. Similarly, Hexacom continues its upward trajectory, projecting steady gains with revenue growth of 10.7 per cent and EBITDA growth of 13.3 per cent on a YoY basis, Axis Capital said in a report.

While Indus Towers maintains a stable performance with marginal gains, VIL’s results highlight ongoing challenges, as it continues to navigate bottomline pressures despite modest top-line improvements. Overall, the data underscores a divergent performance landscape as these players move into the new fiscal quarter, it added. 

Rising users

“We expect subscribers to grow by 0.7% on quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis driven by subscriber gain for Vodafone Idea (VIL). Subscriber adds for Bharti could be 3.5 million QoQ, while VIL’s subscribers may rise 0.5 million,” ICICI Securities said in a report.

The brokerage expects Bharti’s to add of 4.5 million 4G and 5G subscribers on a net basis, and VIL to add 1 million 4G users. Bharti Airtel’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) may rise by 2 per cent, while mobile services’ revenue could grow 3.1 per cent. VIL’s revenue is likely to rise 1.7 per cent.

Tata Communications’ data business revenue is expected to grow at 11.8 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY), while its EBITDA margin could expand by 4 basis points on a QoQ to 18.5 per cent. Indus Towers would add 4,500 tenancies from Bharti and VIL, and consequently, its EBITDA may rise 1.3 per cent on QoQ and 3.1 per cent on a YoY basis.

“Revenue growth, slowed capex, and rising network utilisation should help continue margin uptick, and we expect wireless EBITDA margins to expand 10-50 bps QoQ. It implies healthy EBITDA flowthrough for Bharti/Hexacom (80%) while lower for VIL (60%),” Axis Capital added.

Fixed wireless access (wireless broadband) should continue to increase on healthy user traction as reflected in accelerating subscriber additions. Bharti Airtel was slower versus competition, but it too is now seeing decent growth. As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), Bharti Airtel’s fixed wireless access (FWA) subscribers are at 3.7 million (25% of home-broadband subscribers) in May’26 versus 1.5 million a year ago, it said.

Bharti Enterprise should see modest sequential growth, it added.

“We expect double-digit topline growth and EBITDA growth for Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Jio (unlisted), while Bharat Hexacom and Indus Tower are set to deliver mid-single digit, topline growth,” Elara Capital said in a report.

Rising ARPU

Reliance Jio has introduced new plans in short validity periods of 30 days and 28 days, such as the cricket and gaming data packs to rev up ARPU. On its part, Bharti Airtel introduced a new 365-day plan, while the operator had increased tariff price of its 84-day recharge pack to INR 899 from INR 859 and tweaked offerings in its 28-day recharge packs, Elara Capital said.

Apart from financial performance, near-term stock price performance of telecom operators may hinge on valuation that Jio Platform garners in its upcoming IPO.

Jio Platforms had filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on June 19 for a fresh issue of up to INR 270 million shares.

“In our view, India’s telecom sector is on a multi-year recovery, driven by ARPU improvement, structural data demand, and lower incremental capex,” it added.

Telecommunications companies are expected to report stable financial results for the first quarter, supported by an additional day in the period that bolstered quarter-on-quarter mobile revenue growth, according to report by IIFL Capital.

Vodafone Idea is anticipated to deliver a steady performance, building on momentum from the previous quarter as its relative under performance compared to rivals narrows. Bharti Airtel is projected to see consolidated revenue growth of approximately 3.6 per cent sequentially, driven by gains across its Indian mobile, home services, direct-to-home, and African operations. EBITDA is estimated to rise by 2.1 per cent for Bharti Airtel, 0.9 per cent for Vodafone Idea, and 1.8 per cent for Bharti Hexacom on a quarterly basis, it added.

Indus Towers’ underlying EBITDA excluding provisions for doubtful debts, are expected to remain flat sequentially due to a slowdown in tower and tenancy additions during the quarter. Tata Communications is likely to witness an earnings decline of about 3 per cent, reflecting weakness in its media vertical following the cancellation of events during the conflict in West Asia, and a fire at its Delhi data centre in June. IIFL Capital analysts largely maintained its estimates and target prices for the sector, noting that Bharti Hexacom and Indus Towers appear attractive, while fundraising by Vodafone Idea remains a key factor to monitor.